(84) In addition, ONS methodology means that the imputed earnings https://fnb.co.za/ on assets differ from the actual earnings that affect the balance sheet, and from the valuation of gilts held in the schemes. (81) Revaluation of pension liabilities, in particular, can lead to material changes in PSNFL, which we further explore below in B.23. (45) See our Review of the March 2024 forecast for departmental expenditure limits, October 2024.

Credit conditions and the housing market

But the directly unobservable nature of the output gap means estimates of its size are extremely uncertain. Most of our models suggest the output gap was around zero in the second half of 2023, with business surveys suggesting there is still some excess demand in the economy. CPI inflation dropped from a 41-year high of 11.1 per cent in October 2022 to 4.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2023, 0.6 percentage points lower than we expected in November. The surprise fall in November monthly inflation represented the largest undershoot against the industry consensus since at least 2014.2 Gas and electricity bills, food, and fuel were broadly in line with our expectations in the final quarter of 2023. The downside surprise was split between lower inflation in other tradable and non-tradable goods and services.

Amid weak growth prospects, South Africa eyes tax measures to deal with debt

• This contributed to wholesale oil and gas prices rising 75 per cent above our central forecast at the time.
• The government may have to assume some of the ZAR 56.3bn in debt (0.8% of GDP) owed by municipalities to Eskom in addition to supporting other state-owned enterprises.
• 3.37 We estimate the policy will apply to the around 600,000 private school pupils in the UK and that the effective VAT rate applied will be 15.4 per cent, less than the standard rate as some input costs will be recovered.
• We focus on those measures with the largest direct or indirect fiscal impacts, those with complex interactions with other policy, or those that are particularly uncertain.
• But the literature does not generally consider luxury shoppers explicitly who we would expect to be relatively more price sensitive.

This is influenced both by these policy changes taken in isolation and the wider impacts of the capital tax package. The full package is assumed to increase migration by both these groups by a small amount in addition to the specific effects of the non-domicile and carried interest reforms, driven largely by the increase to the main CGT rates and increased IHT liabilities. 2.50 Our central forecast for cumulative real GDP growth between 2023 and 2028 is 0.5 percentage points higher than the average of other forecasters (equivalent to around 0.1 percentage points a year). Compared with the Bank of England, we expect marginally lower GDP growth this year but higher growth thereafter. The near-term differences could reflect policies in this Budget, which may not have been fully anticipated by external forecasters or captured in the Bank’s August forecast.

Real GDP and the output gap

Import volumes are expected to rise 0.1 per cent a year on average over 2024‑2028, 0.4 percentage points higher than November, consistent with higher domestic demand. Recent disruptions in the Red Sea present a risk to global trade and energy prices (see Box 2.2), but our central forecast does not include a material impact on UK trade. 2.29 Business investment is volatile and has historically seen large revisions but was 3.0 per cent higher at the end of 2023 than we expected in November. We expect business investment to contract in the near term as past increases sasol limited in interest rates raise the cost of capital and weigh on spending.

October 2024 Economic and fiscal outlook – detailed forecast tables: aggregates

The UK adult population in 2023 is now estimated to have been 54.8 million, almost 700,000 people larger (1.3 per cent) than the data suggested in November. We have also incorporated a higher future path for net migration, informed by recent data outturns and updated ONS population projections published in January. As a result, net migration falls from its mid-2023 level of 670,000 to settle at the ONS’s latest medium-term estimate of 315,000 at the forecast horizon, 70,000 higher than the 245,000 assumed in November. Box 2.3 discusses our latest forecast for net migration, and its potential economic impact, in more detail. 2.10 We now expect inflation to fall faster than in our November forecast over the coming two years.

Prices fell sharply from their quarterly peak of 289 pence a therm in the second half of 2022 to a low of 69 pence a therm at the beginning of this year. Prices have risen since, driven by expectations of a colder winter and the continued conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The outlook for gas prices remains uncertain, underscored by price expectations for 2025 ranging between 70 and 108 pence a therm since our March forecast. 2.6 Five-year gilt yields are forecast to rise from 3.8 per cent on average this year to 4.4 per cent in 2029, on average 0.2 percentage points higher than our March forecast (Chart https://www.investec.com/ 2.1, right panel).

Spending measures announced in this Budget

In conjunction with the transition to renewable energy, coal-fired power plants in Mpumalanga are already on their way to retirement, amplifying the need to find alternative sources of employment and livelihoods for their workers. The authors then take a close look at the labour market profiles and demographics of these workers to study whether a just transition is at all possible. Our Future of Development programme conducts quantitative social science research to build livelihoods and resilience in the face of climate change and technological advancements. The programme partnered with the University of Cape Town’s Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU) to take a crucial step towards empirical https://deriv.com/ clarity on the potential placement of affected production workers in non-coal jobs. DPRU, through in-depth research, informs effective policymaking in the region, prioritizing livelihoods as the country transitions to a greener economy.

This cost escalation is attributed to rising prices for key inputs like steel and increased loan costs. EACOP, primarily financed through a debt-to-equity split, is a crucial component in commercialising Lake Albert’s oil resources. The 1,443-km pipeline, running from Hoima in Uganda to the Indian Ocean Port of Tanga in Tanzania, represents a significant investment and is expected to have substantial economic impacts for the region. The pipeline project, despite facing environmental criticism, is anticipated to play a pivotal role in boosting both Tanzania’s and Uganda’s economies and enhancing regional energy infrastructure. Eastern Africa is set to experience a landscape of modest economic recovery characterised by a stable median GDP growth rate, indicative of a recovery phase across most nations. Despite these challenges, opportunities abound, particularly in the infrastructure and energy sectors, which are key drivers for future growth and development in the region.